Despite Formula 1 adopting some of the biggest regulation changes it has ever seen, last year’s top four teams look set to dominate again in 2026.
Regulation cycles in F1 are designed to incorporate the latest safety innovations, while also making the racing more entertaining. This year, F1 has introduced major car updates, including a new aerodynamics package and power units that use 100% sustainable fuels.
The clean slate should give teams further back on the grid a chance to catch up with those at the front. But the lap times from testing at Bahrain tell a different story.
Scuderia Ferrari HP driver Charles Leclerc led the way with the quickest time of 1:31.992s on the final day, which was 1.5s faster than TGR Haas F1 Team driver Oliver Bearman, whose team also uses Ferrari power units.
This trend continued throughout the three days, with Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s fastest effort in the Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team nearly a second faster than Franco Colapinto, driver of Mercedes customer BWT Alpine F1 Team.
“There are four teams who are quite far ahead, and then it’s the rest of the teams that are very close together,” said Colapinto, speaking in the driver’s press conference during Bahrain testing.
This view was shared by Atlassian Williams F1 Team driver, Carlos Sainz: “It seems like the gap to the top teams, the four teams that used to lead last year, has increased. It’s going to require a lot of hard work over the next few months and races to try and recover that gap.”
Convergence will take time
The lap times from Bahrain testing are a significant contrast to the 2025 season, which featured extremely tight competition. The MSC Cruises Sao Paulo Grand Prix saw the closest top 10 qualifying in the history of F1, while Sainz and Nico Hulkenberg earned podiums driving for midfield teams.
So why, in the era of F1 cost caps and testing restrictions, is there such a big disparity between the teams at the front and those in the midfield at the beginning of a new regulation set?
Ferrari Team Principal, Frederic Vasseur, believes the margins were so close in 2025 due to a combination of F1’s stable regulations, the cost cap, and aerodynamic testing restrictions that give more wind tunnel and CFD simulations to teams lower down the pecking order.
“The convergence of performance will arrive after each season. If you look at last year, it was probably the best season in terms of close competition. But it was also after five years of the same regulations,” he explained.
“This year, the gap will be a bit bigger, but we’ll have the same convergence, and I’m sure that during the season, you will have teams catch up who are at the back, and they could even be faster. You also have the allowance of wind tunnel time, which is making a difference during the season now.”
One of the most recent examples is the McLaren Mastercard F1 Team, which won its first Constructors’ Championship since 1998 in 2024 and its first Drivers’ Championship since 2008 with Lando Norris last year. Mercedes team principal, Toto Wolff, believes this is one of the success stories of the cost-cap era in F1.
You can see how quickly you can turn things around. McLaren was really struggling for some years, then within a couple of races, the team reemerged like a phoenix.
Toto Wolff
“You can see how quickly you can turn things around. McLaren was really struggling for some years, then within a couple of races, the team reemerged like a phoenix, and Zak (Brown) has been winning two championships since then,” said Wolff.
“There is always equal opportunity for everyone. Someone who is in the midfield today or is not as competitive as they would wish to be, six months down the line who knows where they will end up.”
Makings of a championship
McLaren Chief Executive Officer Brown believes a big part of their recent success has been down to their personnel recruitment, which is tied to their investment in a new wind tunnel that came online in 2023.
“It’s people. We’ve all got great technology, wind tunnels, etc. But I think in our case, we’ve got a fantastic culture with all the men and women at McLaren,” he said.
“We have a lot of stability. We haven’t had much change in the team. I just think we’ve got a great way of working.
“We also have a great driver lineup, as do many other teams. But when you put that all together, even though the margins are very thin, I think that ultimately makes a difference.”
It could be argued that McLaren has a much bigger budget than most teams to spend on upgraded wind tunnels, but F1 and the FIA granted some teams an increase in capital expenditure allowance in 2024.
This is separate from the annual performance-related spending under the cost cap, as the CapEx limit regulates investment in infrastructure over a rolling four-year period.
The spending reform was lobbied for by Williams Team Principal James Vowles, who argued that his team’s lack of investment before the introduction of the cost cap in 2021 and its shortfalls in infrastructure compared to rivals prevented it from gaining ground.
Williams was among the biggest beneficiaries of the increase in CapEx spending, alongside fellow smaller teams Haas, Audi Revolut, and Visa Cash App Racing Bulls who all received a £15 million increase to £50 million.
F1 has always had a migratory workforce, and its product is immediately visible on track. Increased infrastructure spending should enable these teams to attract talent similar to that at the top.
Audi and Cadillac F1 have both outlined plans to reach the front of the grid within a given timeframe, rather than expecting immediate results.
For F1 2026, expect a similar two-tier story between the top teams and midfield – but in years to come, that might not necessarily be the case.
